The weather situation to start this week will be in marked contrast to how last week finished. The rapid warming will continue as a ridge of high pressure gets just enough of a bump from an offshore low to give us a warm southwest flow, pushing our high temperatures up to the low 80s in the valley on Tuesday while keeping our skies mostly sunny. The heat will stick around through Wednesday before easing slightly (70s) toward the latter half of the week.
While forecasting technology has made great leaps over the last half century, it still remains an inexact science. But improvement in computer modelling has stretched the time frame in which a meaningful forecast can be made. When I first began forecasting in Reno in 1988, I felt (somewhat) comfortable making a five day forecast, although days four and five could make me nervous. Today, I have a similar comfort level making a forecast out to seven days, which is a pretty good measure of how far the science has advanced in the last quarter century.
But how about those last days of the extended forecast? The level of confidence changes depending the time of year. I’ll explain tomorrow.