The strong ridge of high pressure which has pushed valley temperatures near or to the 80 degree mark will stick around for one more day before allowing a dry and weak cold front to cool thing off into the mid-70s on Thursday. That cold front will keep us in a dry and sunny pattern through Friday as the 80s return for the weekend. The heat combined with light winds will allow some afternoon cloudiness to build up both Saturday and Sunday, and as that pattern remains stagnant a slight chance of afternoon showers and/or thunderstorms creeps into the forecast early next week.

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You might think that the confidence in the extended forecast (days 5-7) would be the same regardless of the time of year, but that’s not always the case. I have found computer models are a little more reliable in the winter and summer months than they are in the spring and fall. I think the reason for this is winter and summer storms are very different from each other, and the computer models adjust accordingly. But in between those seasons, storms can have characteristics of both, and the computer models have a difficult time applying the appropriate “rules.” So if you see the tail end of a seven day forecast change as the weekend gets closer this time of year, cut your lowly forecaster a little slack. It’s a tough season.

 

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