We have a set up coming our way Tuesday that could result in some severe weather. It’s a combination of warm temperatures (low 90s), high instability, a lot of moisture from the remains of Tropical Storm Blanca, and an upper level low which could provide just enough dynamics and shear to create supercell thunderstorms in western Nevada and the Sierra. It is such an unusual combination around here that is it difficult to say for sure what the outcome will be, but there is potential for very strong thunderstorms and potentially heavy rains.
The base of the thunderstorms will be fairly high (10,000’ or so) which will increase the possibility of localized strong winds from the outflow of the storms. Generally speaking the winds will be light, but outflow gusts from any storms which build up could exceed 65 mph. There is also potential for large hail and heavy rains which could produce flash flooding.
By Wednesday, the temperatures will cool significantly which will reduce the likelihood of strong thunderstorms, but heavy rains remain a possibility. By Thursday things should clear out and warm back up.