The weather the next couple of days will be in large measure be determined by how a weak offshore low pressure center interacts with the moisture remains of Hurricane Dolores. A light southerly flow will draw up said moisture into the region, and will combine with enough heat to generate scattered thunderstorms across western Nevada and eastern California. Odds are about even that any one location will get wet on Tuesday. While the dynamics are marginal, the additional moisture from Dolores will create opportunities for potential flash flooding. The low begins to lift out of the region dropping the chance of thunderstorms to about 20% on Wednesday before things dry out the second half of the week.
Richard was worried about lightning danger. “I’m hiking/spending a night up in the Mt. Rose Wilderness area next week and my tent has aluminum support poles. Does that make it more dangerous?” Indeed, even with the chances of thunderstorms decreasing a bit, we all should be lightning-savvy whenever we go outside during the summer months. But let’s start with Richard’s statement about aluminum support poles. Does that make a difference? We’ll tackle that tomorrow.