It looks like the weather will clear up for the weekend, if you can ignore the smoke and haze from area fires. A stable ridge of high pressure on Saturday will result in mostly sunny and hazy conditions with temperatures in the upper-80s. The ridge will build over the next couple of days resulting in highs moving back into the 90s. By Monday, and especially Tuesday things destabilize enough to bring afternoon thunderstorms back into the mix.
As I mentioned yesterday, positive lightning can be much more dangerous than negative (not that negative is anything to sneeze at.) First of all, a positive lightning bolt is generally much longer than a negative one, since it has to reach the top of the cloud instead of the bottom. This alone can add several miles to its length. Because of the greater distance the positive strikes travel, it takes a higher charge to complete the “circuit”, and positive strikes usually carry more current… up to ten times that of standard negative strikes. But what makes them even more deadly is their unpredictability.
Positive lightning strikes can hit more than ten miles away from the thunderstorm, and be literally a “bolt from the blue.” Because of that, the normal precautions that we might take as we hear thunder in the distance may not be there, because the first strike can come long before we would have heard any previous strikes.
To distinguish one type from another, positive lightning usually forks upward from the ground, while negative lightning forks downward from the cloud.
Joe Livak said:
When you give the POP do you use the American Meteorological Society definition, i.e., point specific over a specific period of time; or do you go with the National Weather Service definition, i.e., “C” x “A” ? Most people I know have no idea what the “% chance of rain” means. And I suspect that diferent meteorologists use different definitions without clarifying what they mean.
— Joe Livak
Mike Alger said:
Hi Joe. Essentially what I mean is that if you are outdoors somewhere within the forecast area you have that percentage chance of getting wet (measurable amount) at some point during the forecast period. That can either mean there’s a 30% chance of it happening anywhere, but if it does everybody will get hit; or there will almost for sure be some showers, but it will only hit about 30% of the forecast area. Winter forecasts tend to be the former, summer the latter.
I hope this helps.